Korea's Aging Population

Kang Jin-uk, Kim Hyoung-gi, Do Il-hwan

Every silver lining has a cloud, especially in recent advances in health and population control. People are living longer and more women are learning the necessity and methods of controlling reproduction. These two beneficial developments, however, have combined to cause a growing aging population and a dwindling younger population, with possibly dire consequences.

The world has been blessed with improvements in health and population growth. For the first time, better medical care is preserving life from death. Therefore, infant mortality has fallen rapidly and more people are living longer. According to a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report which released 12 OCT 1999 on it's website www.unfpa.org, average life span was 70.6 for men and 78.4 for women in the more developed countries in 1999. In addition, more improving education and family planning help lots of women know how to do birthcontrol by using the method of contraception. So, in a lot of developed countries, fertility is getting lower now. A report on the website "Overpopulation. com" comments that in the cases of Europe and Northern America's fertility rate, the former was 1.5 in 1997 and continues to fall below the level of proper population's balance. The latter was 2.0 in 1997 and it is expected to stay around 1.9 in the year of 2000.

The combination of a longer life span and lower fertility has the effect of increasing the proportion of older people while decreasing younger population. The proportion of young people is decreasing in developed countries. A report issued in September 1999 by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) forecasts that in Europe the proportion of children under 15 years old will decline form 18 percent in 1998 to 14 percent by the year 2050. On the other hand, developed countries are getting larger proportion of old people. According to the report, the proportion of old people aged 65 or over in developed countries increased from 8 percent in 1950 to 14 percent in 1998 and is expected to reach 25 percent by 2050. Another report issued in 1998 by UNPD shows that in some countries like Japan and Germany, the rate of old people will occupy more than 80 percent within the next 35 years. The former age structure pyramid showing the aged population at the top will be reversed in the next few decades.

This aging phenomenon will likely cause severe social crisis in developed countries. As the young population decreases, the population segment able to contribute to economic growth is decreasing. Economic growth is expected to decline as work-age population decreases. For example, report by Japan's Economic Institute warns that economic growth will likely show negative growth from about 2010 in Japan, because economic system needs expanding workforce to maintain growing economy. In addition to the problem caused by a decreasing young population, society will suffer from a proportionate increase in the old population. As the number of old people compared to young people increases, it requires that society should spend more money on welfare, such as pensions and health care. This unbalanced situation of age-structure is driving these developed countries into a corner. "Policy.com", a news website, says "the United States is already feeling the pangs of social crisis, and other countries will have to find a way for a shrinking work-age population to economically support the entire society." The reduction of economically active population and the increase in the burden of welfare cost on the society are causing social crisis which is going to become increasingly difficult to deal with.

It is true that we will be living longer and will not have to worry about crowding ourselves off the face of the earth, but every advance has its drawback. The world's aging population will make it difficult for both young and old to live their lives fully. Let us hope that the advanced technology which is causing this potential disaster will somehow provide a way around it.