The upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Gyeongju presents a pivotal opportunity for South Korea to serve as a mediator between the US and China, as trade tensions between the two superpowers have heightened, a Seoul-based think tank said Sunday.
“The Oct.31-Nov.1 APEC Summit should be used not only to reinforce US-Japan-Korea cooperation but also to moderate US-China rivalry,” a report by the Sejong Institute said. “If Seoul can facilitate meaningful progress in the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, it would enhance Korea’s diplomatic standing and serve as a model of pragmatic statecraft.”
US President Donald Trump reaffirmed Friday that he would hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea “within the next couple of weeks,” coinciding with the APEC summit.
Trump made the announcement during his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House, amid rising trade friction between Washington and Beijing following China’s recent decision to tighten export controls on rare earth elements, key materials for both defense and high-tech industries.
“China wants to engage in dialogue, and we’re open to that,” Trump said. “We have a very positive relationship, and we’ll be meeting in South Korea soon.”
The think tank also said that as North Korea deepens its ties with Russia and China to expand its influence within an emerging “new Cold War” framework, South Korea should respond with pragmatic diplomacy. This involves strengthening its trilateral alliance with Washington and Tokyo for Seoul.
It assessed the evolving dynamics of North Korea, China and Russia following this year’s Victory Day parade in Beijing. The report said the joint appearance of the three leaders, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Xi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, “symbolized an anti-US coalition and underscored the deepening of a new Cold War order.”
While Russia seeks tangible gains, North Korea aims to project its nuclear power status, and China pursues a balanced diplomatic stance, the report pointed out. The three countries are now strategically coordinating their agendas. “Their partnership is not based on ideology but on overlapping interests,” it said.
Regarding Pyongyang-Moscow cooperation, the think tank predicted that the partnership “will likely continue in the long term, built on unprecedented troop deployments and arms support from North Korea.” Despite Russia’s limited reciprocation, it added, “mutual dependence has solidified to the point where military technology transfers from Russia to North Korea cannot be ruled out.”
The report estimated that North Korea has supplied Russia with artillery shells, missiles, and manpower worth about $9.8 billion, while Moscow’s compensation — mostly in food and fuel — has been below $1.2 billion. The report characterized this imbalance as an “ironic structure of interdependence,” with Russia increasingly reliant on North Korea’s battlefield support and Pyongyang leveraging this dependence to expand its political and military influence.
On China’s stance, the think tank noted that Beijing “has little interest in formalizing trilateral cooperation into an institutional alliance” and remains cautious toward the Cold War rhetoric promoted by Pyongyang and Moscow. However, it pointed out that Xi’s omission of the term “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” in the latest joint statement with North Korean leader Kim, following their summit last month, could signal “China’s growing willingness to tacitly acknowledge North Korea’s nuclear status.”
Turning to South Korea’s diplomatic strategy, it emphasized the importance of Seoul maintaining a balanced and flexible approach.
“Seoul should keep the US-ROK alliance as its anchor while pursuing practical engagement with China and Russia and easing US-China tensions,” it said. “Even within the framework of trilateral cooperation with Washington and Tokyo, South Korea needs the diplomatic flexibility to adjust on matters directly tied to national interests, such as tariffs and defense cost-sharing.”
mkjung@heraldcorp.com
